Game Notes
Date: Saturday, September 7th at 4pm ET Network: ESPNU Location: Bobcat Stadium — San Marcos, Texas Spread: Texas State (-1) Over/Under: 63.5 Lifetime Record: UTSA leads 5-0 Last Meeting: UTSA 20, Texas State 13 — September 9, 2023 Current Winning Streak: UTSA, 5 (2012-23)
Setting
Though the I-35 rivalry has only aired five episodes, the series has already quickly become one of the greatest modern rivalries in sports. UTSA fans and Texas State fans hate each other so much that they never get a break while scrolling online, whether it’s game week or just an ordinary day in July when there’s nothing else to talk about.
For now, all the bragging rights go to UTSA. The Roadrunners are 5-0 in the series and remain intact against the Bobcats heading into Saturday’s game in San Marcos. Last year, UTSA took advantage of home-field advantage, drawing 49,342 fans to the game, the second-largest attendance ever. The Roadrunners will be hoping Texas State comes back with one of the best atmospheres in FBS history.
The sixth edition of the I-35 rivalry has arrived, and this time the stakes are higher than ever due to expanded access to the College Football Playoff, and with UTSA and Texas State being AAC and Sun Belt contenders, respectively, both schools will be hoping for a win in a non-conference match that will be a highlight on their CFP resumes.
UTSA Roadrunner Outlook
UTSA began the season at the Alamodome against the season’s only FBS newcomer, Kennesaw State. The Roadrunners started strong, jumping out to a 21-3 lead less than 20 minutes into the game and appearing poised for a commanding victory. But their offense suddenly stalled out and the Roadrunners struggled for nearly 37 minutes without scoring a single point.
Kennesaw State closed the gap on UTSA with a 13-0 run, but the Roadrunners scored a game-winning touchdown with four minutes left to secure a 28-16 victory.
While Jeff Traylor’s squad certainly had high expectations coming into the season opener, there were still some parts of the team that performed well. One of those was new starting quarterback Owen McCown. He recorded one of the top 10 passing performances in UTSA history, completing 28 of 38 attempts for 340 yards and scoring four total touchdowns in just his second start in the blue and orange. McCown played a key role in leading the Roadrunners to a shocking 21-3 start, and when the team needed a boost in the final minutes, he led a 44-yard drive that sealed the 1-0 record with a clutch touchdown pass to Oscar Cardenas.
Given McCown’s nearly flawless performance, why did the offense go awry during a 37-minute slump that featured five punts, a fumble and a missed field goal? First, there were the penalties. UTSA had a 65-yard touchdown pass called back for holding and was instead out on third down. The Roadrunners were flagged for 10 flags for 109 yards, putting the offense in constant difficult situations. Plus, the pass protection got worse. Under right tackle Makai Hart, UTSA couldn’t keep McCown upright at all. The quarterback was sacked five times by an FBS rookie, and the line couldn’t hold up in the run game either. Despite a deep backfield featuring a trio of veterans Kevorean Barnes, Robert Henry and Rocco Griffin, the Roadrunners gained just 76 yards on 34 attempts and no rusher gained more than 30 yards.
UTSA will be hoping to revive its run game against Texas State, but the Roadrunners are well-equipped through the air. Devin McCain proved himself as a No. 1 receiver last week, hauling in 11 receptions (one shy of a UTSA record) and catching two touchdowns in his season debut. Cardenas is also a threat in the passing game, and the sixth-year senior is a home run playmaker from the tight end position, including a 35-yard reception and a touchdown against Kennesaw State.
Defensively, UTSA played a decent game against the Owls, especially against the run. The Roadrunners boast the best front line in the AAC, led by two big star defensive tackles in Brandon Brown (6’2″, 320 lbs) and Joe Evans (6’3″, 335 lbs). The duo does a good job of dictating intent on the interior, allowing others to have fun in the run game. It’s no surprise that the Roadrunners held Kennesaw State to 51 yards on 39 rushes, including three sacks, en route to a defensive-led win.
The Roadrunners also have a deep linebacker lineup, returning last year’s inside linebacker duo of Jamal Ligon and Martavius French. The pair recorded more than 60 tackles last year and will be vital in containing Texas State’s backfield, led by Ismail Madi. But the secondary was prone to allowing Kennesaw State to make explosive plays, allowing four passes of 20 yards or more. Strong safety Ken Robinson and the defensive backs will be looking to tighten up their shell defense to prevent Texas State from doing the same thing Saturday in San Marcos.
Texas State Bobcats Outlook
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Texas State is fresh off its best season since joining the FBS. The Bobcats entered football’s top division at the same time as UTSA in 2012 and, like the Roadrunners, won their first bowl game last December.
Under first-year head coach GJ Kinney’s tutelage, Texas State finished the season 8-5 after winning the First Responder Bowl and will be hoping the momentum continues to lead to even bigger opportunities in 2024. The Bobcats are 1-0, but things didn’t go their way in the season opener. Texas State won 34-27 against Lamar’s FCS opponent at Bobcat Stadium. But the final score looked worse than the game itself, as Lamar sneaked in 10 points with 4 minutes, 11 seconds left to pull within one.
Texas State was dominated by talented freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud, who transferred from James Madison University this offseason and led the Bobcat offense with 238 passing yards and three touchdowns, completing 21 of 30 attempts with one interception. McCloud’s deep passing was excellent throughout the game, completing all three of his touchdown passes from 30 yards or more.
Joey Hobart, Texas State’s top receiver in the class of 2023, received two of those touchdown strikes and currently leads the team in receiving yards on the season with 91. But McCloud distributed the ball pretty evenly among his starting receivers, with Jayden Williams and Cole Wilson also picking up seven receptions apiece.
Kinney’s offensive line is loaded with skill-position talent, but perhaps the most notable player on this unit is running back Ismail Maddie. Maddie finished 13th in the nation with 1,331 rushing yards last fall, the Bobcats’ best mark since joining the FBS in 2012. After rushing for 156 yards in the season opener, Maddie is already on track for another impressive season. Texas State threw 28 passes to Maddie against Lamar, and he’s used to handling a lot of carries, rushing 20 or more times in eight of the past 11 games.
Outside of Mahdi’s continued success, perhaps the most promising takeaway from Texas State’s Week 1 victory was its dominance on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Offensively, the line, led by left tackle Nash Jones, provided plenty of impetus for the run game, averaging over five yards per carry and only one sack. Defensively, Texas State thrived on the Lamar backfield from start to finish, recording seven sacks and three additional stops behind the line of scrimmage. It was a coordinated effort, with three Bobcats leaving the stadium with multiple sacks, including defensive end Ben Bell, the biggest threat to UTSA’s offensive line. Bell finished with a team-high 10 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in 2023, ranking fourth on the team in total tackles.
The Bobcats’ biggest weakness in 2023 has been their air defense, as evidenced by their 101st-ranked passing yards allowed per game and holding opposing quarterbacks to just 65% pass completion percentage. Against Texas State, Lamar wasn’t efficient in the passing game, but they did have an explosive performance with their receivers averaging nearly 15 yards per reception. Limiting those big gains will be key against Owen McCown and the Roadrunners, and strong safety Caleb Culp will be a key piece in recording stops in the defensive backfield.
prediction
There’s a reason the gap is so even: it’s a tough match to predict with any confidence, and neither team will feel safe until they see “FINAL” on the scoreboard and one team is in the lead. It’s going to be that close.
Neither team performed up to expectations in their home games in Week 1, so both teams will now be hoping to quickly get back to their old levels in a heated rivalry matchup in front of a passionate crowd that, given Texas State’s recent winning streak and improved standing under coach GJ Kinney, will play a bigger role than any San Marcos crowd in the history of the I-35 rivalry.
Both teams’ new starting quarterbacks flourished in their season openers, and the game was more about offensive success than defensive stoppage, with both teams approaching 30 points. But the X-factor that will separate the rivals on Saturday will be Texas State’s relentless Ben Bell defense and UTSA’s offensive line, which didn’t offer the best rushing lanes or pass protection in Week 1 against Kennesaw State.
Prediction: Texas State 34, UTSA 31
