The 2024 Texas Panhandle wildfires highlight urgent lessons about climate change, population decline, and managing aging infrastructure.
In late February 2024, an unprecedented wildfire raged across the Texas Panhandle, burning more than 510,000 hectares and destroying more than 500 structures. The largest wildfire ever recorded in Texas and the second largest in the United States, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned 426,600 hectares (Figure 1). The fire started in Hutchinson County on February 26, 2024 and quickly spread into Hemphill and Roberts counties, including the town of Canadian. 11,000 people lost power, and 3 people and 15,000 cattle were killed. Insurance losses are expected to exceed $350 million, and the Panhandle Wildfire Investigation Commission estimates that the total economic losses in the Panhandle, including the economy it supports, could ultimately exceed $1 billion. 1
Figure 1: Extent of the largest fires in Texas and Oklahoma from February to March 2024 (main panel, orange). Urban areas are shown in gray. County boundaries are shown in dark gray. Inset: The Texas Panhandle region is highlighted in purple shading.
Data source: National Interagency Fire Center, WFIGS 2024 Interagency Fire Perimeters.
The Smokehouse Creek Fire highlights how climate change, human factors and poor land management exacerbate wildfire severity and offers five key insights for risk managers.
1. Aging power infrastructure and poor regulations increase fire risk
An investigation determined that the Smokehouse Creek Fire was started by a hanging power line from a broken utility pole that had needed replacing two weeks earlier. 1 High winds on February 26, 2024 caused the power line to fall onto dry grass, sparking the fire. This incident reflects a trend over the past 20 years in which power lines have become a leading cause of wildfires in the Texas Panhandle. 1
The fires spread quickly, fueled by grasslands created by a federal conservation reserve program that encourages the conversion of cropland. Moreover, regulatory loopholes allowed oil and gas operators to ignore fuel loads and electrical safety issues at well sites, where exposed wiring and aging equipment posed significant fire risks. At least one oil and gas operator has filed for bankruptcy protection amid pending litigation.1
This situation raises the possibility of insurers bringing potential subrogation claims against utility companies, similar to the compensation obtained from California utilities such as Pacific Gas & Electric after the wildfires of 2017 and 2018. Concerns over current utility regulation and their ability to handle increased risk from extreme weather have also sparked discussion about adopting enhanced measures similar to California’s mandated proactive power shutoffs in high-risk situations.3
2. Declining population hinders wildfire prevention efforts
The population of the Texas Panhandle has steadily decreased due to cultural and economic changes, making it difficult for authorities to manage and respond to recent wildfires. Fewer residents in the region means fewer volunteer firefighters and less tax revenue for local governments that support Volunteer Fire Departments (VFDs), according to the Texas Emergency Management Council. The Panhandle is primarily supported by VFDs, but the large area is sparsely populated, limiting the number of people able to spot recent wildfires. Many of the wildfires burned unnoticed for hours before being reported.
3. Texas faces wildfire threat
Wildfire risk in Texas peaks during two specific periods: winter (February to April) and summer (August to October). Winter fires are often sparked by cold fronts that bring dry air and strong winds, while summer fires are sparked by high temperatures and prolonged drought. Historically, the largest fires have occurred in the winter, including the Smokehouse Creek Fire in 2024.
Wildfires in Texas are becoming larger and more intense, with fire seasons lasting longer and becoming more destructive.5 Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the state as a result of higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. Research shows that U.S. wildfire seasons are already getting longer and more intense, with wildfires burning more than twice as often in Texas now than they did in the early 1970s.6
Urbanization exacerbates this problem, with more than 85 percent of wildfires in Texas occurring within two miles of a community.7 As more homes are built on the mountain-urban interface, it becomes critical for both individuals and local governments to prioritize wildfire prevention and response.
4. Recent fires increase protection gap challenges
Texas homeowners insurance rates are significantly higher than the national average and are rising due to an increase in weather-related claims and concerns about climate change. Governor Greg Abbott noted that many homes in rural Panhandle counties affected by the recent fires are uninsured.8 Similarly, most fence and cattle losses are uninsured unless the landowner has a special endorsement.1 Preliminary estimates indicate agricultural and related economic losses from the Smokehouse Creek Fire could be as high as $123 million.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in Texas, increasing the risk for uninsured homeowners. This highlights the urgent need to improve insurance affordability and close protection gaps, especially for vulnerable rural and low-income residents. The Panhandle Wildfire Study Commission1 recommended that the Legislature limit premium increases for fire-affected property and business owners and explore ways to make fence and cattle insurance more widely available and affordable.
5. Monitoring hazardous aerosols will become increasingly important
Air pollution from wildfires has far-reaching effects: wildfires in Canada in 2023 affected more than one-third of the US population. Reduced air quality has serious health consequences, leading to around 340,000 premature deaths worldwide each year. 9 In North America, that number is projected to double by 2050. 10
Remote sensing techniques using thermal and aerosol data from satellites provide near real-time information on wildfire progression and dangerous aerosols such as carbon monoxide, allowing emergency management and healthcare providers to effectively allocate resources and mitigate the severe respiratory and cardiovascular effects of wildfire smoke, as evidenced by the high levels of carbon monoxide in the Texas Panhandle wildfires (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Carbon monoxide plume extent measured using Sentinel-5P TROPOMI sensor on 27 February 2024. Areas marked in red have the highest CO concentrations and, therefore, the most adverse health effects.
Data source: RSS-Hydro
Implications for risk managers
risk assessment
Assess wildfire exposure and vulnerability outside of traditionally high-risk states on the West Coast of the U.S. These assessments should consider how climate change is changing the frequency and severity of wildfires.
Strategic Preparation and Mitigation
Strengthen local mitigation measures, such as building defensible spaces around buildings. Insurers can support and incentivize these efforts through premium discounts and community programs.
Risk Transfer Solutions
We partner with natural hazard risk experts to more precisely quantify wildfire risks, develop innovative solutions to manage and transfer these risks, and help close protection gaps.
footnote
1. King, K. et al. Panhandle Wildfire Investigative Commission: Report to the 89th Texas Legislature. (2024). Back to article
2. National Weather Service. Two days of high winds, dust and dangerous fire weather (February 26-27, 2024). (2024). Back to article
3. Texas Tribune. Texas requires utilities to prepare for emergencies, but Panhandle fires don’t stop. (2024). Back to article
4. Personal Communication. (2024). Back to article
5. Texas A&M Forest Service. Texas Fire Planning. (2023). Back to article
6. Climate Central. Burning Hot: 50 Years of Fire Weather Across the United States. (2024). Back to Article
7. Fire information. Historical fire statistics. (2024). Back to article
8. Texas Tribune. Many homes burned in Texas wildfires are uninsured, and the road to recovery is difficult. (2024)> Back to article
9. WWF. Fires, forests and the future: a crisis spiralling out of control? (2020). Back to article
10. Ford, B. et al. Impacts of future fires on smoke concentrations, visibility, and health in the continental United States. GeoHealth, 2(8), 229-247. (2018). Back to article
Co-authored with Alice Pais de Castro, Technology Development Consultant at RSS-Hydro
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide on the subject matter. Professional advice should be sought regarding specific circumstances.
