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The presidential race has garnered most attention this election season, but candidates in traditionally Republican Texas are not putting much energy into the race.
But voters will continue to have a big influence this November, both inside and outside the state. They will elect one U.S. senator, 38 U.S. representatives, 150 state representatives, and several judges and local elected officials. And they will have influence on some important questions.
Which party will control Congress?
What will happen to abortion regulations in Texas and the rest of the country?
Will there be enough votes to allow parents to use their tax dollars to pay for private school tuition?
Here is a summary of some of the key issues reporters are focusing on.
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Will Colin Allred help Democrats maintain their U.S. Senate majority?
With a one-seat majority, Democrats have little margin for error if they want to maintain their Senate majority. The party is eyeing Texas as one of its two biggest chances to win seats currently held by Republicans.
Colin Allred, one of the U.S. senators from Texas, is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz. Although he is considered an underdog, Democrats argue that Cruz’s near-universal name recognition and deep unpopularity among the left could make the race more competitive. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke also brought the state back to the party’s attention in 2018, when he came within three points of defeating Cruz.
Mr. Allred’s campaign has linked Mr. Cruz to the state’s strict abortion regulations and his vote against the recent bipartisan border security proposal approved by the Biden administration. Mr. Cruz, on the other hand, has argued that Allred is weak on border and energy policy, a common Republican criticism of Democrats. Recent polls show the difference between Mr. Allred and Mr. Cruz is less than 5 points. The two are scheduled to face off in a televised debate on October 15th.
A win for Allred would help Democrats gain seats. It would also be a monumental moment for Texas, and American, politics. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas this century. Even if he doesn’t win, a strong performance could boost Democratic turnout in the down-ballot race in Texas. But national Democrats also have to worry that several vulnerable incumbents in other states are limiting the amount of resources they can devote to Texas this year. Meanwhile, nearly all of the Republican incumbents up for re-election this year are in safe seats in the Senate, and Mr. Cruz remains a strong fundraiser and popular among Texas officials with conservative constituencies. .
Regardless of which party controls the Senate, neither party is likely to achieve the 60-vote majority needed to overcome the legislative filibuster. This means it will likely be difficult for both parties to pass their priority legislation. But whoever wins would be responsible for confirming presidential nominees to the federal courts and some executive branch positions, as well as controlling what bills are brought to the floor.
—Matthew Choi
Will South Texas help Republicans maintain their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives?
As Republicans continue to make inroads in areas with large Hispanic populations, three South Texas legislative races could play a key role in whether Republicans can maintain a slim majority in the House.
Edinburg Republican Monica de la Cruz, who became the first Republican in the historically Democratic 15th District and South Texas area in the 2022 election, will face Democrat Michelle Vallejo in a rematch. Vallejo is challenging Dela Cruz on health care, the economy, and even pitching herself as the better candidate on border security, but she is far from the progressive champion she was as a candidate two years ago. . The district was designed by state lawmakers to favor Republicans, so Vallejo will need to fill in the ranks with moderates and independents and hope to emerge from the presidential race if he is to come out on top.
In the neighboring 34th District, Republican Mayra Flores is seeking to regain the seat she previously won in a special election in July 2022, but was ousted months later by Vicente Gonzalez. Mr. Gonzalez, a Brownsville Democrat, was elected to Texas during redistricting by the state Legislature to make the old Texas 15th District seat, currently represented by Mr. Dela Cruz, more favorable to Republicans. After the district was reorganized into the 34th district, he won the seat in November of the same year. Flores denounced Gonzalez in the first quarter of 2024 and was named a “young gun” by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Gonzalez, who won the last election by an 8-point margin, expressed confidence in his campaign, saying he welcomes Republicans spending money on races that are “sure to lose.”
The third South Texas race to watch is District 28, which Laredo Democrat Henry Cuellar has represented for nearly 20 years. The district’s Republican challenger, Navy veteran Jay Furman, is new to politics and raised only a small amount of money during the primary, so Mr. Cuellar appeared safe.
But in May, Cuellar was indicted on charges of bribery and money laundering related to donations from banks in Azerbaijan and Mexico, and Republicans added him to their “hit list.” Cuellar maintains his innocence, and voters in the district appear to be loyal to the longtime lawmaker.
Collectively, these races will depend on the state of the economy, immigration, health care, and infrastructure. In the South Texas election, both incumbents appear to be favored to win. But if any of the challengers pulls off an upset, it could affect the calculation of dominance in the House of Representatives, which is responsible for introducing budget bills, impeaching federal officials and choosing the president in the event of a tie. (If there is a tie in the number of electors, the Senate will choose the vice president.)
—James Barragan
Is abortion on the ballot in Texas?
Voters in 10 states will have the opportunity to vote directly on their state’s abortion restrictions in November. Texas is not among them. The state does not have a mechanism for voters to place issues directly on their ballots. Nevertheless, in states where nearly all abortions are banned, reproductive rights are certain to be a top issue in elections for Congress, the president, and state judges.
The Legislature has no direct say in Texas law, but Democrats would need significant control of both chambers to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act and other bills that would restore access to abortion nationwide. Dew.
Texas’ abortion law has also been a centerpiece of the presidential campaign. Several Texas women who say they were denied medically necessary abortions campaigned for Vice President Kamala Harris, and Amanda Zulawski spoke at the Democratic National Convention. If elected, Harris pledged to sign legislation to restore access to abortion and work to repeal existing regulations, including the Hyde Amendment, which limits the use of federal funds for abortions. Her opponent, former President Donald Trump, has been stumped on the issue, recently vetoing a nationwide abortion ban and saying he would leave the issue to individual states to decide. Many in his party have made it clear they expect him to sign a nationwide abortion ban.
Democrats in the Texas House and Senate want to restore abortion rights into law. But with redistricting and Texas’ political shift to the right, there is essentially no chance that Texas will gain control of Congress this year.
Three seats on the Texas Supreme Court are up for re-election. These are usually boring elections that Republican incumbents easily win, but the court is being reconsidered by Democrats following two controversial abortion decisions. All three incumbents have Democratic challengers, and a new political action committee, Find Out PAC, is aggressively expanding the role of sitting judges in anti-abortion cases. But even if this election were to break the court’s red wall, Republicans would still have a nine-seat majority.
—Eleanor Klibanov
Can Pro School Voucher Candidates Win Power in the Texas Legislature?
Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican supporters of school voucher policies have been pushing to allow Texas parents to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools, but Democrats in the Texas House of Representatives have called for allowing Texas parents to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools. Lawmakers and local Republicans have repeatedly blocked such efforts, including last year.
The governor successfully targeted many anti-voucher Republicans in the primary and then claimed he had the votes needed to pass the voucher bill. A total of 77 House Republican candidates have voted for vouchers or expressed support on the campaign trail, giving them a narrow majority in the 150-seat majority.
But Democrats, who conceded a change of government, flipped enough Republican-controlled House seats this fall to regain the upper hand and again rejected Mr. Abbott’s vote to provide taxpayer funding for private school tuition. I’m thinking of doing it.
Most of the competitive races are centered in the suburbs of Dallas and San Antonio and in South Texas, where Democrats hope their push for public education will resonate at the ballot box and help struggling public schools. It spans several districts. Their main targets include the following Republicans:
San Antonio State Rep. John Lujan
Richardson State Rep. Angie Chen Button
State Representative Morgan Meyer, University Park
San Benito State Rep. Janie Lopez
Democrats also sought support from state Rep. Steve Allison, a moderate Republican who opposes school aid, after Allison lost the March primary to conservative challenger Mark Lahoud, a criminal defense attorney. He sees a new opportunity to win seats in the Antonio region. back voucher.
Mr. Abbott and other voucher advocates are also working to flip several Democratic-held districts, which would further widen the currently razor-thin pro-voucher majority. . Primary targets include districts held by retiring state Rep. Tracy King, D-Uvalde, and state Rep. Mihaela Presa, a Dallas Democrat seeking a second term.
—Jasper Scherer
Will the far right continue to win elected office in Texas?
In an election filled with uncertainty and existential rhetoric, at least one thing is clear: the country is deeply divided and expected to remain so for years to come. Political polarization continues to increase, according to various surveys this year. This includes two attempts on Trump’s life, dramatic political stunts, Biden’s historic decision to withdraw from the race, and new conspiracy theories, disinformation, and political violence. This became clear during the chaotic summer.
But it’s no longer just a matter of red versus blue. In Texas, the Republican Party is in its second year of deep infighting between the party’s right wing and its more moderate but deeply conservative wing. The state’s far right will see a wave of victories in the March primaries, giving it more power than ever in Congress. Those rifts are almost certain to deepen heading into the 2025 legislative session, as competing factions of the party seek the Texas House speaker’s seat, and therefore leadership. Some of these Republicans have previously called for barring their Democratic colleagues from serving as minority committee chairs.
And in places like Tarrant County, local control will depend on several negative votes between center-left Democratic candidates and far-right candidates.
This division has become sharper amid the rise of Christian nationalism, which argues that the United States was founded by God and that American institutions should therefore support conservative Christianity. This year, as state Republicans weighed the upcoming election between good and bad, prominent activists publicly embraced a once-fringe theory that claims America and its church are under attack. I accept it.
Those who study and believe in religious fundamentalism say that in the event of a large-scale election defeat, they may be forced to rally around the false notion that voter fraud is widespread, or by He says the movement could become even more intense by convincing members that they don’t fight or believe hard enough to overcome what’s going on. Their claims are dark cosmic forces on the other side of the political aisle.
—Robert Downen