Big Ten Pick 6, Week 2: EMU visits Seattle, Texas travels to Michigan

For most of the teams involved, I’m willing to accept a Week 1 record of 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 tie in the absence of data. A week later, relevant questions remain: How much of what we just saw is part of a team’s true identity, and how much is the result of one game? Can Michigan throw the ball this year? Will Oregon be forced to rely on short passes because of deficiencies in its offensive line? Is Colorado the same team it was a year ago, making and missing big plays?

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Texas @ Michigan (+7.5)

Michigan is a legitimate concern after Davis Warren struggled with the pass in Week 1 against Fresno State. In 2006, Florida won the national championship with a veteran passing QB (Chris Leak) backed up by a young running QB (Tim Tebow). Michigan followed the same strategy, with JJ McCarthy occasionally giving way to Alex Orji on clear running downs. Tebow has become more than just a prop player for the Gators. Orji doesn’t seem to be on track yet. Meanwhile, Texas lost an outstanding inside defensive line. They have big men on offense, but Michigan is outstanding on the run. Texas will win this game, but Michigan’s defense and running game will carry them to victory. A spread over TDs may be an overreaction to one bad game for Michigan.

Texas 24 – Michigan 20

Iowa State University @ University of Iowa (-2)

The Cyclones are national champions thanks to the performance of their returning players, but Matt Campbell hasn’t had a good record against Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes. This game will be hard-fought. There were periods when the Steelers and Ravens defenses were underwhelming, and every game seemed to be split between low-scoring field goals. The line typically reflected that perception. The line was at 3 for most of the week, but it dropped by a point. Given two great defenses and an unproven offense, that point is enough to pick Iowa.

Iowa 17 – Iowa State 14

Michigan State @ University of Maryland (-8.5)

Neither team is a Big Ten contender, but they’re not on the same level. Maryland is definitely a mid-major team in the conference and should be bowl eligible at the end of the year. Jonathan Smith is good at making the most of a talent disadvantage, but he has a rebuilding project that won’t end in the summer. The Spartans struggled against FAU in Week 1. Maryland QB Billy Edwards has become a very promising starter after two years of being a backup and going the steady, boring route. He won’t be as big a part of the transfer portal conversation, but he’s got a lot going for him until he faces off against a team as solid and truly elite as Maryland.

Maryland 30 – Michigan State 20

Colorado @ Nebraska (-7.5)

College football lost so many good and interesting quarterbacks to the NFL draft last year (Penix, Daniels, Williams, Nix, McCarthy). There was some question of whether the number of star-caliber quarterbacks would decrease. Instead, Tennessee running back freshman Niko Iamareva and Nebraska true freshman Dylan Raiola seem to have risen to stardom right away. Raiola started his career with 8.8 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and zero interceptions against UConn. Colorado will be a tougher test, but that’s mainly because Shader Sanders has the aforementioned star power to keep the Buffaloes in the game. I wrote in the preface about the one-game anomaly and the new identity. I believe Nebraska’s improved offense is the difference between them being able to compete with the powerhouses between losing and getting back to a bowl game for the first time in a long time.

Nebraska 37 – Colorado 28

Boise State @ Oregon (-19.5)

This game could be called the ghost of the LaGarrette Blount Bowl. Last year, Oregon threw a lot of short passes and basically ran a very wide rushing attack. Dillon Gabriel also kept the ball close to the line of scrimmage last week against Idaho and had a high pass completion percentage, but that was mostly due to the defensive pressure he always had before he could get the ball downfield. If Oregon loses the option to spread the field, defensive backs will be closer to the line of scrimmage, so their pass completion percentages will remain low. Austin Jeanty ran for six (six!!) touchdowns at Boise last week. Both Oregon’s offense and Boise’s rushing attack are not as extreme as what we saw in Week 1, and I think the Ducks will bounce back.

Oregon 41 – Boise State 20

Eastern Michigan @ Washington (-24.5)

Last week, Washington overcame a four-touchdown deficit by weakening a trying defense, but ultimately couldn’t withstand the battering ram that is Jonah Coleman and the Huskies’ ground game. We’ll see a very similar story play out against Eastern Michigan in Week 2. The Eagles allowed 152 yards on the ground to a moribund UMass a week ago. If UW can replicate the Minutemen’s 41 carries, they should rack up well over 200 rushing yards. If EMU occupies the line of scrimmage, Will Rogers may not dominate the top of the defense, but I think he’ll be able to do more damage with mid-range passes to bigger outside targets.

Defensively, it would be good to see progress on the interior defensive line to stop rushing attacks. EMU has Delbert Mims, a 220-pound slugger who resembles a traditional NFL fullback. They may need to put a nickel or third linebacker in the box to generate negative plays. I believe the secondary will be a struggle for QB Cole Snyder, who had middling performances at Rutgers and Buffalo prior to this year. The general pattern is similar to last week, but the Dogs got touchdowns instead of field goals and forced incomplete passes to thwart drives. They will have to do the same this week to cover the spread.

Washington 33 – Eastern Michigan 13