At a Tuesday board meeting with members of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Operational Forecast Supervisor Chris Coleman warned of significant cold snaps throughout the winter. According to ERCOT, a severe cold snap similar to the February 2021 storm would have an 80% chance of causing power outages, impacting more than 27 million customers across Texas.
“I think there will be more support than usual because this winter is going to be extremely cold,” Coleman said. “If a frigid event were to occur, mid-to-late winter would be the most likely time.”
Coleman said this winter is showing similarities to the 2020-2021 season, which is also expected to be milder, a worrying sign for those who remember 2021’s devastating storms. He pointed out that there is. “This year was very similar to that,” Coleman explained. “This does not mean we will have another event like 2021, but it does suggest that we are in a pattern that could lead to similar events this winter.”
The February 2021 winter storm was historic, recording one of the worst infrastructure failures in Texas history. Widespread power outages affected millions of Texans, resulting in 246 lives lost due to lack of heat and cooking.
According to the latest ERCOT monthly report, the power grid has added 10,000 MW of new generating capacity since last winter to maintain power across Texas. We also have the capacity to dispatch as needed. Additionally, ERCOT has conducted 2,892 inspections of its power grid system since the 2021 winter storm.
As ERCOT continues to improve and expand the power grid in the nation’s second most populous state, all Texans should have a plan in place in the event of a severe winter storm. This includes monitoring weather forecasts, stockpiling emergency food and water, and ensuring access to alternative heat sources such as fireplaces and generators.
The full board meeting, including the winter 2024-2025 outlook, can be found here.
