Summary: Francine remains a strong tropical storm this morning and is beginning to shift from the northwest to the north to the northeast, which will eventually move the storm well away from Texas. Impacts to many areas outside of the coast will be difficult to distinguish from a normal late summer day in Houston.
Francine’s current situation and predictions
The overall forecast for Francine is pretty much what we’ve been saying for the past few days: the tropical system will remain well offshore from Texas, with minimal impacts for most of our area. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that by tomorrow, people in Houston will be thinking, “A hurricane? What hurricane? Are you kidding me?” Well, those who don’t know any better would at least think so, but I don’t think readers of this site would.
Francine will be no joke for southern Louisiana. This tropical storm will pack sustained winds of 65 mph and is expected to move inland as a Category 2 hurricane Wednesday afternoon or evening. The state’s most populous areas from Baton Rouge to New Orleans will be directly impacted by winds, rain and storm surge. Be sure to check back with The Eyewall later this morning for continued coverage of these impacts on Louisiana.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Rain is falling off the coast of Texas this morning. The question is how far inland the rain from Francine will penetrate into the Houston metropolitan area today and tomorrow. The answer is, not very far. Based on high-resolution modeling, rain clouds will reach the coast around noon today and then melt quickly as they move inland. After that, the region may see scattered rain through Wednesday evening. Overall, the coast will see 1-2 inches of rain, and much less inland. Areas like Katy and Tomball may not see any rain at all.


As for winds, we’re not expecting much. In fact, Francine’s path will move further east overnight, which will really keep the strong winds at bay. By Tuesday night, the city of Houston could see gusts of around 25 mph, with coastal areas potentially reaching 30-40 mph. However, we don’t expect anything more severe than this, and if you need to go outside, these winds should be fine. Coastal areas, including Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula, will see sea levels rise 1-3 feet above normal at high tide.
Bottom line, most of the Houston area will not know there is a hurricane passing offshore today and tomorrow. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid-80s F, cooler than average for this time of year. Probably the biggest takeaway we’ll get from this storm is some slightly cooler days. I’m not going to complain.
Thursday
A few showers will be possible Wednesday night, but by Thursday clearing will occur with a light northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach around 90 degrees.
Friday, Saturday, Sunday
The weekend will be hot with scattered to mostly sunny skies, with daytime temperatures rising to the low 90s F in most locations and overnight temperatures in the mid 70s F. If you squint, there’s a slight chance of rain returning to the forecast by Sunday, but it’s more like a 10 to 20 percent chance.


next week
We don’t see any major changes in the pattern next week. Highs will be in the low 90s F, with a low chance of rain and plenty of sunshine. Though a little warmer than normal weather for mid-September, this is pretty typical weather and will be great for pool, beach, or outdoor water activities.
Next Update
We will provide a brief update on Francine later this afternoon, but we do not anticipate any significant trajectory changes that would impact Texas.

