Again Off-Off-Again tariffs, the fundraising that challenged the courts, “as I said” regulation rollbacks and a vague threat to the clean energy tax credits, making it still difficult to know what Trump’s early actions will be. The long-term impact of Trump’s initial actions on the climate economy remains merely estimates. projection. But I wanted to see what we could say clearly about Trump’s second first 100 days. What does the data tell you?
Trump is moving faster than in 2017
By the end of Trump’s first first 100 days, he had signed a total of 24 executive orders. As of today, Trump has signed 20 executive orders relating to environmental policy alone, within a total of over 100.
This is partly a volume play. Trump said he would sign 100 executive orders on the first day in preparation for the inauguration. He didn’t, but obviously the amount is part of the point.
Some executive orders are stronger than others. Legal experts say an order directing the Attorney General to “stop enforcement” of the state climate program will not go anywhere. It is also not clear that his “revitalization of the clean coal industry” is more than a wishful thinking. However, he also ordered agencies to end the government-wide environmental justice programme and status, expand timber production and fishing, and promote fossil fuel development and deep sea mining.
Trump has stock markets in Yo-Yo
Trump’s tariff strategies are still changing daily, making it difficult to pinpoint exactly how this will affect the clean energy transition. When global tariffs on steel and aluminum are in force, all fossil fuels and renewable energy, internal combustion vehicles and EVs all feel pain. Tariffs in China and other East Asian countries will be tough for battery and solar companies, but they can also damage liquefied natural gas companies that want to sell to those markets.
All we know is that the market depends on every word of Trump and every remark about “tax” has caused a crash. Even after Trump pulled back his sweeping “Day of Liberation” tariffs, the economy still appears to be brave because of the recession.
Trump is hampering his fossil fuel agenda
Fear of a global recession has also taken away oil prices. West Texas intermediate crude, a popular benchmark for oil prices, has fallen below $65 since April 4th, shortly after Trump’s global tariff announcement. The oil company says $65 a barrel is the lowest price needed to profitably drill new wells.
But for American producers, the trade war is not the only headache. The International Oil Cartel OPEC+, which announced that Trump had wiped out global tariffs, declared it would boost production, flooding the market with more than 400,000 barrels per day in May. Ironically, despite his “drill, baby, drill” agenda, Trump may view both cases as a victory. He is pushing OPEC and domestic producers alike to lower oil prices.
According to Baker Hughes, the general indicator for oil industry health, a general indicator for oil industry health, fell from 489 to 480 from April 4 to 480, but it is the largest drop recorded since June 2023. (And it reminds us that the US has produced more oil under President Biden than ever before.) Producers still don’t appear to be causing rash changes with the oil patch, but if prices remain low, experts hope that production will plateau or decline.
The project has been cancelled…but Trump’s impact is vague
Perhaps the most difficult question that strikes the data is the extent to which Trump’s first action disintegrated the Clean Energy Project.
A recent report from Clean Investment Monitor, a project from the Rhodium Group and a project of the Centre for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at MIT, found that the first quarter of this year saw the biggest investment in clean manufacturing investments from the cancellations and closures of projects in the past few years. The data is tough and means Trump is responsible, but a closer look at the project complicates the story.
For example, American battery maker Kore Power announced in February that it had cancelled plans to build a $1.25 billion factory in Buckeye, Arizona, but the company quietly placed its production site on the market in mid-January, and is now trying to revive the plan as a factory remodel rather than a new build. Freyr Battere canceled its $2.6 billion plan to manufacture battery cells in Newnan, Georgia, but the company cited “higher interest rates, lower battery prices, changing corporate leadership and changing targets.” The closure of two Solar4America manufacturing sites in California and South Carolina, first reported on PV Magazine, could have resulted in a decline in sales in 2024.
All the examples I found seemed to present an equally confusing picture. It is possible that Trump has scared clean manufacturers and influenced demand forecasts for things like batteries, and perhaps even possible. However, it appears that businesses have not explicitly cited federal policies in their decisions – at least not yet.
Investments in new projects also appear to continue alongside these cancellations. A report from Clean Investment Monitor found that projects worth $9.4 billion were announced in the first quarter of this year. That’s more than the end of last year, but less than 23% since the first quarter of 2024.
Clean Energy Generation is another story, presenting a case that has no doubt that Trump played a role in killing the project. On his first day in office, Trump issued a presidential memorandum for Lava Ridge Wind Farm in Idaho. This created more than 700 jobs during construction, created 20 permanent jobs and brought millions of tax revenues to the state, but it faced fierce local opposition. The developer behind Lava Ridge’s LS Power quietly removed the project from the portfolio map.
But again there is a gray shade. For example, many solar farms were set to receive loans from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, but are in scope as the program’s fate is fought in court. Some people don’t survive the time that process takes to unfold, but if the program is ultimately reclaimed, other projects could be their place.
The true moment of the truth about clean manufacturing and energy generation projects is coming into Congress working on a “big and beautiful” budget bill to enact Trump’s tax cut agenda. If Republicans decide to kill tax credits that are important to these factories and power plants, there is no question as to what will happen next or what will be held responsible.
