Week 12 doesn’t offer many strong matchups, so bettors will have to dig deeper for opportunities. Vegas seems to be struggling to get a solid read against the Texas A&M Aggies, but could a matchup against the namesake New Mexico State Aggies be a chance to cash in?
Check out which side you’re on with this New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M prediction.
New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of Thursday, November 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -32 Spread
Texas A&M -39 Moneyline
N/A Over/Under
54.5 points game time
November 16th, 7:45pm ET Location
Kyle Field Stadium | College Station, Texas Kick Weather Forecast
69 degrees, sunny, wind 8 mph.
SEC Network
Vegas doesn’t have a very good opinion of Texas A&M, as the Aggies are just 3-6 against the spread, with only two games coming within single digits of the numbers set by the sportsbooks. This is a big number, and bettors should be cautious, even against a terrible team.
More information: Simulate the college football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff prediction tool
With a total of 54 points and a 39-point lead, Vegas had little confidence in New Mexico State’s offense, suggesting the final score was closer to 46-7 in Texas A&M’s favor.
New Mexico winning probability
New Mexico State is scheduled to win on Saturday, and CFN’s Football Playoff Meter lists this as one of the largest spreads it’s seen all season. These Aggies have only a 0.1% chance of winning outright. But there will be some winnable games to close out the year.
Here are New Mexico State’s remaining winning odds for the 2024 season.
Texas A&M: 0.1% Middle Tennessee State: 36.9% vs. UTEP: 48.8%
Texas A&M odds of winning
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 99.9% chance of beating New Mexico State at home. According to our metrics, the Aggies are heavy favorites for the next two games, so Texas A&M’s season will likely end against Texas.
Here are Texas A&M’s remaining winning odds for the 2024 season.
vs. New Mexico State: 99.9% Auburn: 83% vs. Texas: 38.1%
New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Prediction
There’s no question about this game, but Texas A&M’s quarterback situation has gotten my attention. The Aggies benched Connor Weigman in the win over LSU, giving Marcel Reed a chance to shine. Reed sliced through the Tigers with his legs, but considering LSU’s defensive struggles, it wasn’t exactly a Herculean feat.
However, like most things, Reid struggled against South Carolina’s relentless pass rush. Still, he seems like a man moving forward. That makes sense given his age and athleticism, but it also raises questions. The Aggies want to develop their quarterback for the future, but will Weigman be content to sit on the bench as he is only a redshirt sophomore?
Or will Texas A&M give him more snaps than a typical backup and try to keep him around in case of an explosion?
These are the questions I’m thinking about.
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If Reed is going to be a starter beyond this season, it makes sense to start him in non-SEC games now. That’s the reality of college football today. Coaches are managing rosters on the fly.
Facing five straight SEC defenses and with two more left on deck, I’ll be interested to see how Mike Elko distributes his playing time overall.
What about the actual game? There’s not much to analyze. New Mexico State ranks 110th in scoring offense and 129th in scoring defense. They are a shell of last season’s team, losing key contributors like Diego Pavia, Jerry Kill and Eli Stowers during the offseason.
New Mexico State doesn’t have the depth or talent up front to match any team in the SEC, let alone Texas A&M, so the Aggies should have an advantage in the trenches. QB play has been sporadic at best for the Aggies’ opponents, and there’s little reason to expect a competitive matchup.
That being said, with two tough games looming before the end of the season, I expect Elco to turn to backup players early. For Texas A&M, the key is staying healthy, not covering a major outbreak.
If you’re itching to bet on the spread, New Mexico may be the place for you. However, the wiser choice is probably the under, as Texas A&M’s second-tier defense should be more than capable of holding off New Mexico State’s ferocious offense.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41, New Mexico State 6
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