No matter how you look at it, Texas should be viewed as the home of the College Football Playoff right now. They enter the Lone Star Showdown against Texas A&M at 10-1 on the season and should be able to beat the Aggies regardless of what happens against Georgia in the SEC Championship rematch in Atlanta. ESPN’s FPI currently gives the Longhorns a 98.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
That’s fourth in the nation and best in the SEC, surpassing Georgia’s whopping 90.8 percent chance of winning. All signs point to Texas, Georgia and Tennessee having a 74.7 percent chance of winning. They make it to the playoffs with relative ease. It might be just these three SEC teams this year, but what if the Chalk prevails after this upset? What happens if Texas A&M beats Texas?
If they lose on the road to the Aggies in College Station, the Longhorns would lose at home to Georgia and away to Texas A&M, ending the regular season at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in SEC play. Georgia State will face Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M must win to make the playoffs, but as long as they can beat Georgia Tech, Georgia is probably safe no matter what.
Will Texas still be in the playoff field then, after going 10-2 (6-2) with two quality losses and no good wins?
Let’s assume the chalk is somewhere else. Georgia State defeated Texas A&M to win the SEC. Oregon State defeated Ohio State to win the Big Ten Championship. Miami beats SMU to win the ACC championship. Notre Dame defeated USC and finished the year with an 11-1 record. Indiana defeated Purdue and finished the year with an 11-1 record. Penn State defeated Maryland and finished 11-1. The University of Tennessee defeated Vanderbilt University and finished with a record of 10 wins and 2 losses. Clemson finished 10-2 against South Carolina.
Oregon, Georgia and Miami will be the top three seeds. The Big 12 and Group of Five champions give teams the No. 4 and No. 12 seeds in order. Now, the remaining seven regular teams will compete. What schools would definitely rank higher than Texas? In order, Indiana, Notre Dame, Penn State, and Tennessee would all be a safe bet. This leaves 3 spots left.
In this scenario, Ohio State and SMU would be 11-2 and runner-up in the Big Ten and ACC. They won’t lose badly, especially if BYU wins the Big 12 or plays for a conference title. Texas would be harder to put in than Ohio State and SMU because you don’t want to punish anyone by having to play an extra game. On top of that, Ohio State has two signature wins. SMU vs. Texas will be discussed…
Another team to consider in this equation is Clemson. The Tigers’ two losses come against SEC champion Georgia and a middling Louisville team. A successful head-to-head matchup with South Carolina would likely give the Tigers the quality win they need against Texas to clinch that spot. So, in reality, the big debate for the final spot will be between Texas and SMU.
I think it comes down to how close the game was in Charlotte between the win Miami and the loss SMU. If it’s a blowout loss, Texas will probably end up barely making it as a No. 11 seed or something. Longhorn Nation, I hate to say it’s a close game, but SMU will beat you guys because, again, I don’t think the selection committee wants to inflict that kind of punishment.
Overall, I think what this exercise shows is that Texas vs. Texas A&M is very focused on what’s going on in the ACC. The ACC will likely have two teams currently, while the SEC may only have three. If Clemson beats South Carolina and inflicts its fourth loss of the season to the Siamcocks, the Tigers will have a better record than the 10-2 (6-2) Texas team.
Texas has a 1.9% chance of not making the cut, with a loss to Texas A&M giving them a choke advantage.
AP Top 25: 3 teams ranked higher in CFP, 3 teams ranked lower. dark. Next. AP Top 25: 3 teams ranked higher in CFP, 3 teams ranked lower
