Matt Mackowiak analyzes the presidential election after the Democratic National Convention.
DALLAS — Matt Mackoviak is a longtime Republican strategist and chairman of the Travis County Republican Party.
But even he acknowledged that Democrats held a compelling convention, drew a large television audience and effectively presented Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.
“The question now is, is Harris’ free ride over?,” Mackowiak asked Inside Texas Politics. “Can the meteoric rise she’s had over the last six weeks be sustained by anything real?”
Mackowiak said “things will change” after Labor Day as voters start to pay more attention, campaigns start to actually spend money, debates start to take place and the race becomes more issue-focused.
“I think the challenge facing Democrats right now is twofold: One, she has a lot of good ideas about how to improve things, so why hasn’t she implemented them for three years,” Mackowiak said. “But two, what will happen to her policy ideas? Why have her opinions changed on so many things? And when is she going to start answering actual questions?”
Strategists say the Trump campaign now needs to focus the campaign on the economy and immigration, and they will win, Mackowiak said.
But when it comes to issues of abortion, character and reckoning, Harris has a good chance of winning, he says.
Mackoviak said the race will be close all the way to the end.
Here in Texas, a new survey of likely voters has found Harris has closed the gap, with Trump’s lead now just under five points, 49.5% to 44.6%.
The survey, conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Policy and the TSU Barbara Jordan and Mickey Leland School of Public Policy’s Executive Master of Public Administration program, has a margin of error of +/- 2.65 percentage points.
“It’s still going to be narrowed down to seven states. It’s probably going to be narrowed down to two or three states. It’s probably going to be narrowed down to 15 counties in two or three states,” Mackowiak said.
And if he had to pick just one state to watch, Mackowiak said it would be Pennsylvania, which he believes will be key to victory for both candidates.
Early voting will take place from October 21st to November 1st.
Election Day is November 5th and polling stations will be open from 7am to 7pm.
